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Our Blackwell and Rubin AI factory platforms will be scaling into the $3 trillion to $4 trillion global AI factory build out through the end of the decade.

2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.

2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.

We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.

We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.

In the next five to ten years, I think.

Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder.

Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.

I think maybe in the next 10, 15 years we can actually have a real crack at solving all disease.

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.

I think the shelf life of the current paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years.

Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.

We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.

If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.

It's going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade.

I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.

The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.

In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.

In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.

We're on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the International Space Station.

I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and "unhobbling" gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.

AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.

AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.

If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years time, we'll do well on every single one.

I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance.

Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.

I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It's possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now.

A safe bet is that GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, and do the same kinds of things and have the same kinds of flaws, but be somewhat better.

Sell.

I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.

If we're right and companies continue to diversify their cash into something like Bitcoin, and institutional investors start allocating 5% of their funds in Bitcoin […] we believe the price will be ten-fold what it is today. Instead of $45,000, over $500,000.

The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.

People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360

I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year.

We've been very focused on his autonomous taxi network opportunity, which we think could take the stock to $4,000. This is over the next five years. We could see Tesla going to $4,000.

Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.

People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists, because it's going to be able to get a lot more experience.

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.

If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.

I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.

Beyond the shadow of a doubt, May 21 will be the date of the Rapture and the day of judgment.

No! No! No! Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out. Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they're more likely to be taken over. Don't move your money from Bear! That's just being silly! Don't be silly!

Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.

There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item.

I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

When September 6, 1994, arrives, no one else can become saved. The end has come.

The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.