Eliezer YudkowskyAI alignment researcher and co-author of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"; the most prominent voice on existential AI risk.
Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.
EconLog (bet terms written by Yudkowsky, published by Bryan Caplan) · Jan 17, 2017 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
The world will be ended by nonaligned AI before 1 January 2030.
Confidence
Sounded fairly sure
Deadline
due Jan 1, 2030
Resolution rule
Hit if, per the bet's definition, humanity's future has been taken over by AI not under human control before 2030-01-01. Miss if Yudkowsky pays Caplan on that date.
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Your call
Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.