Eliezer YudkowskyAI alignment researcher and co-author of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"; the most prominent voice on existential AI risk.
Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.
EconLog (bet terms written by Yudkowsky, published by Bryan Caplan) · Jan 17, 2017 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
The world will be ended by nonaligned AI before 1 January 2030.
Confidence
medium (50%)
Deadline
due Jan 1, 2030
Resolution rule
Hit if, per the bet's definition, humanity's future has been taken over by AI not under human control before 2030-01-01. Miss if Yudkowsky pays Caplan on that date.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.