How it works

A wrong verdict here is a public accusation against a named person, so we resolve predictions carefully: a human editor always decides, AI only ever prepares the paperwork, and everything is published so anyone can check our work.

1. Someone clips a quote

A reader (or an editor) pastes a forecast — a tweet, an article, a clip — and it's archived immediately.

2. It becomes a falsifiable claim

The quote is turned into a specific, checkable claim with a deadline and a rule for what counts as right. An editor has to admit the claim before it counts — vague or unfalsifiable claims are rejected rather than scored.

3. Anyone can propose a verdict

Once the deadline passes, any signed-in reader can propose an outcome with evidence and a rationale.

4. AI drafts the case file, never the verdict

An AI dossier gathers evidence, quotes the relevant passages, and suggests an outcome — but it is only ever an input to a human. It cannot create or finalise a resolution.

5. An independent editor accepts it

The accepting editor can't be the proposer, the person who clipped the quote, or the forecaster themselves. Politically sensitive or high-profile cases need a second editor.

6. A 7-day provisional window

Every accepted verdict is public immediately but doesn't count toward anyone's score for 7 days — enough time for anyone to catch a mistake before it affects a scorecard.

7. Contests

During the provisional window, anyone can contest a verdict on a specific ground: the evidence was misread, the rule was misapplied, there's new evidence, and so on. A different editor screens the contest; if it holds up, finalisation is blocked pending a fresh, independent review.

8. No partial credit

Verdicts are "occurred," "did not occur," "void" (the claim itself was defective), or "unresolvable" (the evidence isn't there). There is no "partial" outcome — where a number is involved, we publish the actual figure instead of hedging.

Retrospective predictions

Some of our launch predictions were clipped after the outcome was already public — "hindsight clips." These are flagged and scored in their own cohort everywhere, so they never inflate a forecaster's real track record.