We're on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the International Space Station.
Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and "unhobbling" gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.
I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.