Shane Legg
U

Shane Legg

@ShaneLegg · X

Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist at Google DeepMind; has held a 2028 median AGI forecast since 2011.

No resolved calls yet. Hedges a lot.

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On the record since Dec 2011
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
2023
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate
I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance.OPEN · 50%
Oct 2023
2011
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate
I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.OPEN · 50%
Dec 2011