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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · X
CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, owner of X and xAI. Best known for dated, public calls on self-driving cars, rockets and Mars.
No resolved calls yet. 5 overdue.
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Sign in with X to claimOn the record since Apr 2019
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
20253 calls0 right · 0 wrong · 3 open—hit rate
2025
3 calls
0 right · 0 wrong · 3 open
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hit rate
We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.OPEN · 75%
Apr 2025We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.retroDUE · 75%
Apr 2025We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.retroDUE · 80%
Jan 2025
Apr 2025We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.retroDUE · 75%
Apr 2025We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.retroDUE · 80%
Jan 2025
20244 calls0 right · 0 wrong · 4 open—hit rate
2024
4 calls
0 right · 0 wrong · 4 open
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hit rate
The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.OPEN · 80%
Sep 2024The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.OPEN · 55%
Sep 2024AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.OPEN · 65%
Mar 2024AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.retroDUE · 65%
Mar 2024
Sep 2024The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.OPEN · 55%
Sep 2024AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.OPEN · 65%
Mar 2024AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.retroDUE · 65%
Mar 2024
20221 call0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open—hit rate
2022
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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20191 call0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open—hit rate
2019
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate