Geoffrey HintonDeep learning pioneer, Turing Award and Nobel laureate; known for the 2016 radiologists call and later AI-risk warnings.
I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It's possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now.
X · May 3, 2023 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
Digital intelligence will overtake human intelligence between 2028 and 2043.
Confidence
medium (50%)
Deadline
due May 3, 2043 (inferred)
Resolution rule
Hit if within the window a broad expert consensus (major labs, academies) holds that AI systems exceed humans at most cognitive tasks. Miss if the window closes without that.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Geoffrey Hinton
People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists, because it's going to be able to get a lot more experience.
DUE