Geoffrey HintonDeep learning pioneer, Turing Award and Nobel laureate; known for the 2016 radiologists call and later AI-risk warnings.
I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It's possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now.
X · May 3, 2023 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
Digital intelligence will overtake human intelligence between 2028 and 2043.
Confidence
Sounded fairly sure
Deadline
due May 3, 2043 (our reading)
Resolution rule
Hit if within the window a broad expert consensus (major labs, academies) holds that AI systems exceed humans at most cognitive tasks. Miss if the window closes without that.
Crowd vote
Sign in to vote and see the crowd.
Your call
Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Geoffrey Hinton
People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists, because it's going to be able to get a lot more experience.
DUE
Forecaster
Geoffrey Hinton
Deep learning pioneer, Turing Award and Nobel laureate; known for the 2016 radiologists call and later AI-risk warnings.
Are you this person? Request a correction