Yann LeCunTuring Award laureate, NYU professor and former Meta chief AI scientist; the leading sceptic of LLM-driven AGI timelines.
It's going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade.
Hudson Forum (reported by TechCrunch) · Oct 16, 2024 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
Human-level AI will not be achieved before 2028.
Confidence
high (80%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2027 (inferred)
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2027 no AI system is broadly recognised by major labs and academies as human-level across cognitive tasks. Miss if one is. This is the sceptic's side of the 2027 AGI calls.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Yann LeCun
I think the shelf life of the current paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years.
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