Bill GatesCo-founder of Microsoft and chair of the Gates Foundation; forecasts on technology and global health.
If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.
TED · Mar 18, 2015 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
A highly infectious virus, not a war, will be the next thing to kill more than 10 million people worldwide.
Confidence
Sounded fairly sure
Deadline
due Mar 18, 2045 (our reading)
Resolution rule
Hit if, before any war does, a single infectious disease outbreak kills more than 10 million people by credible estimates (WHO excess-mortality counts). Editors may resolve early: COVID-19 excess deaths are estimated well above 10 million.
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