Sam AltmanCEO of OpenAI; writes dated essays on AGI, superintelligence and compute.
2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.
Sam Altman's blog, "The Gentle Singularity" · Jun 10, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
In 2026 AI systems will arrive that can figure out novel insights.
Confidence
Sounded fairly sure
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2026
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2026 an AI system is credited, in a peer-reviewed venue or by the field's leading bodies, with a genuinely new scientific or mathematical result that humans had not found. Miss otherwise.
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Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Sam Altman
We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.
DUE
2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.
OPEN
Forecaster
Sam Altman
CEO of OpenAI; writes dated essays on AGI, superintelligence and compute.
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