Gary Marcus
U

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus · X

Cognitive scientist and generative-AI sceptic; makes public bets against near-term AGI claims.

No resolved calls yet. 1 overdue.

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On the record since Apr 2023
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
2024
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate
If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.OPEN · 90%
Dec 2024
2023
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate
A safe bet is that GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, and do the same kinds of things and have the same kinds of flaws, but be somewhat better.retroDUE · 80%
Apr 2023