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Dario Amodei
Dario AmodeiCEO and co-founder of Anthropic; author of "Machines of Loving Grace" on what powerful AI could do and when.
OPEN

I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.

Machines of Loving Grace · Oct 11, 2024 · source · archived snapshot

Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).

Normalized claim
Powerful AI, a 'country of geniuses in a data center', will exist by the end of 2026.
Confidence
low (40%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2026
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2026 a deployed AI system meets the essay's definition: smarter than a Nobel laureate across most fields, able to act autonomously for days, running in millions of parallel instances. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call

Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.

More from Dario Amodei

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

DUE

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

DUE