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Paul Krugman
Paul KrugmanNobel laureate economist and longtime New York Times columnist.
DUE

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

The New York Times (election-night blog) · Nov 9, 2016 · source · hindsight clip

Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).

Normalized claim
US stock markets will not recover from the drop on Trump's election night within a year.
Confidence
medium (60%)
Deadline
Nov 8, 2017 · inferred
Resolution rule
Hit if the S&P 500 closed on 2017-11-08 below its 2016-11-08 close of 2,140. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
No crowd votes were recorded.

Voting closed at the deadline.

More from Paul Krugman

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

DUE

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

DUE