Shane LeggCo-founder and Chief AGI Scientist at Google DeepMind; has held a 2028 median AGI forecast since 2011.
I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance.
Dwarkesh Podcast · Oct 26, 2023 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
AGI will exist by the end of 2028.
Confidence
Said 50%
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2028
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2028 major labs and academies broadly recognise an AI system as matching humans across cognitive tasks. Miss otherwise. Scored at the stated 50 percent.
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Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Shane Legg
I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.
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Forecaster
Shane Legg
Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist at Google DeepMind; has held a 2028 median AGI forecast since 2011.
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