Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder.
AI 2027, AI Futures Project (co-authored with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean) · Apr 3, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
An AI system will reach 'superhuman coder' capability by March 2027.
Confidence
Hedged
Deadline
due Mar 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of March 2027 an AI system does the job of the best human coder on AI-research tasks faster and cheaper, per the AI 2027 definition and frontier lab evidence. Miss otherwise. The scenario is a modal forecast, so scored at the authors' stated confidence.
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