Due

Overdue and unjudged, plus provisional resolutions awaiting finalisation.

Claim: Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death during the 1970s.

Horizon: Dec 31, 1979

Rule: Hit if famine deaths worldwide in 1970-1979 exceeded 100 million by credible demographic estimates. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
The provided sources do not contain any information about the number of famine deaths worldwide in 1970-1979. Source [0] discusses the general topic of famines, their causes, and their decline over time, but does not provide specific data on famine deaths for the specified period. Sources [1], [2], [3], and [4] are not relevant to the question. Therefore, it is not possible to determine whether the number of famine deaths worldwide in 1970-1979 exceeded 100 million based on the provided sources.
Recommends: unresolvable
Paul Ehrlich The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.DUE

Claim: The end of the world will come on September 6, 1994.

Horizon: Sep 6, 1994

Rule: Hit if the world ended on 1994-09-06. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether the world ended on 1994-09-06.
Recommends: unresolvable
Harold Camping When September 6, 1994, arrives, no one else can become saved. The end has come.DUE

Claim: By around 2005 the Internet's impact on the economy will be no greater than the fax machine's.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2005

Rule: Hit if by end of 2005 the Internet's measured contribution to economic output was comparable to that of fax. Miss if it was clearly larger (e-commerce, search, online advertising as sizeable industries).

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
The provided sources do not contain information about the Internet's measured contribution to economic output by the end of 2005, or its comparison to the contribution of fax. Source [0] provides information about e-commerce sales in 2026, but it does not contain historical data. Sources [1], [2], [3], and [4] appear to be CSS and JavaScript files, and do not contain relevant information. Therefore, the prediction cannot be resolved with the given sources.
Recommends: unresolvable
Flags: rule_ambiguous
Paul Krugman The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.DUE

Claim: Growth of the Internet will slow drastically after 1998.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2005

Rule: Hit if global Internet users grew more slowly in 1998-2005 than in 1991-1998. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources are available to determine the growth rate of global Internet users in 1991-1998 and 1998-2005.
Recommends: unresolvable
Paul Krugman The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.DUE

Claim: Bear Stearns is not in trouble and customers' money there is safe.

Horizon: Jun 30, 2008

Rule: Miss if Bear Stearns failed, was rescued, or was sold under distress by 2008-06-30. It was sold to JPMorgan with Federal Reserve support five days later, on 2008-03-16.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
Based on the given information, Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan with Federal Reserve support on 2008-03-16, which is before the specified date of 2008-06-30. Since it was sold under distress before the deadline, I recommend that the prediction be classified as void.
Recommends: void
Jim Cramer No! No! No! Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out. Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they're more likely to be taken over. Don't move your money from Bear! That's just being silly! Don't be silly!DUE

Claim: The Rapture and the day of judgment will occur on May 21, 2011.

Horizon: May 21, 2011

Rule: Hit if the Rapture occurred on 2011-05-21. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether the Rapture occurred on 2011-05-21.
Recommends: unresolvable
Harold Camping Beyond the shadow of a doubt, May 21 will be the date of the Rapture and the day of judgment.DUE

Claim: The iPhone will not gain significant market share in mobile phones.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2012

Rule: Miss if the iPhone held at least 10 percent of global smartphone unit shipments in any quarter by end of 2012 (IDC/Gartner). Hit otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources are available to determine whether the iPhone held at least 10 percent of global smartphone unit shipments in any quarter by the end of 2012.
Recommends: unresolvable
Steve Ballmer There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item.DUE

Claim: Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 United States presidential election.

Horizon: Nov 8, 2016

Rule: Hit if Clinton wins the Electoral College on 2016-11-08. Miss otherwise. Scored at the stated 71 percent.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine the outcome of the prediction.
Recommends: unresolvable
Nate Silver Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.DUE

Claim: US stock markets will not recover from the drop on Trump's election night within a year.

Horizon: Nov 8, 2017

Rule: Hit if the S&P 500 closed on 2017-11-08 below its 2016-11-08 close of 2,140. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine the outcome of the prediction.
Recommends: unresolvable
Paul Krugman If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.DUE

Claim: An S&P 500 index fund will beat a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, net of fees, over 2008 to 2017.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2017

Rule: Hit if the cumulative net return of the Vanguard S&P 500 fund exceeds the cumulative net return of the Protégé Partners fund-of-funds portfolio over 2008-2017, as reported by Long Bets. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
The provided sources do not contain information about the cumulative net return of the Vanguard S&P 500 fund or the Protégé Partners fund-of-funds portfolio over 2008-2017. Therefore, it is not possible to determine whether the prediction occurred, did not occur, is void, or is unresolvable based on the given evidence [0] [1].
Recommends: unresolvable
Warren Buffett Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.DUE

Claim: Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis with regulatory approval in at least one jurisdiction by the end of 2020.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2020

Rule: Hit if Tesla ran a robotaxi service with no human driver, approved by a regulator anywhere, on or before 2020-12-31. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether Tesla ran a robotaxi service with no human driver, approved by a regulator anywhere, on or before 2020-12-31.
Recommends: unresolvable
Elon Musk I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year.DUE

Claim: Deep learning will outperform human radiologists within five years, by late 2021.

Horizon: Nov 30, 2021

Rule: Hit if by end of November 2021 AI systems were reading medical images better than radiologists across the job, such that radiologists were being replaced. Miss if radiologists remained essential and AI stayed an assistive tool; US radiologist employment and demand grew through 2021.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to evaluate the claim.
Recommends: unresolvable
Geoffrey Hinton People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists, because it's going to be able to get a lot more experience.DUE

Claim: Tesla will achieve Full Self-Driving that is safer than a human driver by the end of 2022.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2022

Rule: Hit if by 2022-12-31 Tesla FSD operated without driver supervision and published or independently verified safety data showed it safer than the human baseline. Miss if FSD remained a supervised beta.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether Tesla FSD operated without driver supervision and published or independently verified safety data showed it safer than the human baseline by 2022-12-31.
Recommends: unresolvable
Elon Musk I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.DUE

Claim: Markets in mid-2021 are the greatest speculative bubble of all time and will suffer a historic crash across asset classes.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2022

Rule: Hit if by 2022-12-31 major asset classes fell by more than in any prior drawdown (a crash of historic scale). Partial: the S&P 500 fell about 25 percent and crypto about 70 percent in 2022, which editors weigh against 'greatest of all time'.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
Based on the information provided, it appears that while there were significant declines in major asset classes in 2022, with the S&P 500 falling about 25 percent and crypto about 70 percent, there is no direct comparison to prior drawdowns to determine if this constitutes the greatest of all time [no sources].
Recommends: did_not_occur
Michael Burry People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360DUE

Claim: Tesla stock will reach $4,000 per share (pre-split) within five years of August 2018.

Horizon: Aug 8, 2023

Rule: Hit if Tesla traded at or above $4,000 on a 2018 share basis by 2023-08-08. After the 5-for-1 (2020) and 3-for-1 (2022) splits that is $266.67 per current share; Tesla closed above $400 in November 2021.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources are available to determine whether Tesla traded at or above $266.67 per current share by 2023-08-08.
Recommends: void
Cathie Wood We've been very focused on his autonomous taxi network opportunity, which we think could take the stock to $4,000. This is over the next five years. We could see Tesla going to $4,000.DUE

Claim: US stocks will fall from their 31 January 2023 level over the following year.

Horizon: Jan 31, 2024

Rule: Hit if the S&P 500 closed on 2024-01-31 below its 2023-01-31 close of 4,076. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources to determine the S&P 500 close on 2024-01-31.
Recommends: unresolvable
Michael Burry Sell.DUE

Claim: Tesla will launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid service in Austin in June 2025.

Horizon: Jun 30, 2025

Rule: Hit if paying members of the public rode in Tesla vehicles in Austin with no Tesla employee in the driver's seat on or before 2025-06-30. A safety monitor in the passenger seat is for the editor to weigh against 'unsupervised'.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether paying members of the public rode in Tesla vehicles in Austin with no Tesla employee in the driver's seat on or before 2025-06-30.
Recommends: unresolvable
Elon Musk We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.DUE

Claim: GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, with the same kinds of flaws, only somewhat better.

Horizon: Aug 7, 2025

Rule: Hit if GPT-5 at release was an incremental improvement over GPT-4-class models with hallucinations and reasoning failures of the same kind, per independent evaluations and reviews. Miss if it was broadly judged a qualitative leap.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to evaluate the performance of GPT-5 at release in comparison to GPT-4-class models.
Recommends: unresolvable
Gary Marcus A safe bet is that GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, and do the same kinds of things and have the same kinds of flaws, but be somewhat better.DUE

Claim: AI will be writing 90 percent of code within three to six months, by September 2025.

Horizon: Sep 10, 2025

Rule: Hit if by September 2025 credible industry-wide measures (developer surveys, lab disclosures) showed AI producing about 90 percent of code written. Miss if the share was clearly lower industry-wide, even if some teams reported it internally.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources were provided to assess the current state of AI code production.
Recommends: unresolvable
Dario Amodei If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.DUE

Claim: In 2025 AI agents will join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2025

Rule: Hit if by end of 2025 multiple large companies reported in earnings or filings that autonomous AI agents materially changed their output (headcount, throughput or revenue attributed to agents). Miss if agents remained pilots and assistants.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to evaluate the prediction.
Recommends: unresolvable
Sam Altman We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.DUE

Claim: AI will be smarter than any single human by the end of 2025.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2025

Rule: Hit if by end of 2025 major labs and academies broadly recognised an AI system as exceeding the smartest human across cognitive tasks. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to evaluate the prediction.
Recommends: unresolvable
Elon Musk AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.DUE

Claim: Thousands of Optimus robots will be working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2025

Rule: Hit if Tesla disclosed at least 2,000 Optimus units performing production work in its factories by 2025-12-31. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether Tesla disclosed at least 2,000 Optimus units performing production work in its factories by 2025-12-31.
Recommends: unresolvable
Elon Musk We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.DUE

Claim: In 2025 Meta will have an AI that can effectively be a mid-level engineer writing code.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2025

Rule: Hit if by end of 2025 Meta disclosed an AI system doing the end-to-end work of a mid-level engineer in production, with humans only reviewing. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
There are no sources provided to determine whether Meta disclosed an AI system doing the end-to-end work of a mid-level engineer in production, with humans only reviewing, by the end of 2025.
Recommends: unresolvable
Mark Zuckerberg Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.DUE

Claim: From 2025, Llama models will be the most advanced AI models in the industry.

Horizon: Dec 31, 2025

Rule: Hit if a Llama model held the top position on the LMArena leaderboard at any point in 2025. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
Based on the provided sources, there is no information about the Llama model's position on the LMArena leaderboard in 2025. The source [0] appears to be a homepage for LMArena, but it does not provide any historical data or rankings. Therefore, it is impossible to determine whether the Llama model held the top position on the leaderboard at any point in 2025.
Recommends: unresolvable
Flags: rule_ambiguous
Mark Zuckerberg Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.DUE

Claim: AI will be writing essentially all code within twelve months, by March 2026.

Horizon: Mar 10, 2026

Rule: Hit if by March 2026 credible industry-wide measures showed AI writing essentially all code. Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources are available to determine whether credible industry-wide measures showed AI writing essentially all code by March 2026.
Recommends: unresolvable
Dario Amodei If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.DUE

Claim: Bitcoin will trade above $500,000 within five years of September 2021.

Horizon: Sep 13, 2026

Rule: Hit if Bitcoin's daily close exceeded $500,000 on any day on or before 2026-09-13 (CoinMarketCap). Miss otherwise.

AI dossier — an input to the editor, never a verdict.
No sources were provided to determine if Bitcoin's daily close exceeded $500,000 on any day on or before 2026-09-13.
Recommends: unresolvable
Cathie Wood If we're right and companies continue to diversify their cash into something like Bitcoin, and institutional investors start allocating 5% of their funds in Bitcoin […] we believe the price will be ten-fold what it is today. Instead of $45,000, over $500,000.DUE