The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
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Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year.
I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.
The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.
AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.
We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.