Gary MarcusCognitive scientist and generative-AI sceptic; makes public bets against near-term AGI claims.
If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.
Marcus on AI · Dec 30, 2024 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
By the end of 2027 AI will be able to do fewer than 8 of Marcus's 10 tasks (watching a novel film and answering questions, reading a novel, writing a Pulitzer-calibre book, writing bug-free code of 10,000+ lines, and so on).
Confidence
Sounded confident
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if the Marcus-Brundage bet's panel of judges rules that AI performs fewer than 8 of the 10 tasks by end of 2027. Miss if the panel rules 8 or more.
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Your call
Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Gary Marcus
A safe bet is that GPT-5 will be a lot like GPT-4, and do the same kinds of things and have the same kinds of flaws, but be somewhat better.
DUE
Forecaster
Gary Marcus
Cognitive scientist and generative-AI sceptic; makes public bets against near-term AGI claims.
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