Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.
AI Alignment Forum · Aug 6, 2021 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
By 2026 general-purpose AI assistants will be in mainstream everyday use.
Confidence
Sounded confident
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2026 (our reading)
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2026 hundreds of millions of people use general-purpose AI assistants weekly, per the providers' disclosed usage. ChatGPT reported over 700 million weekly users in 2025.
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Your call
Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
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