Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.
AI Alignment Forum · Aug 6, 2021 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
By 2026 general-purpose AI assistants will be in mainstream everyday use.
Confidence
high (70%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2026 (inferred)
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2026 hundreds of millions of people use general-purpose AI assistants weekly, per the providers' disclosed usage. ChatGPT reported over 700 million weekly users in 2025.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
Major algorithmic breakthroughs produce Agent-3, incorporating "neuralese recurrence" and improved reasoning. Agent-3 achieves "superhuman coder" capability.
OPEN
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.
OPEN