RK
Ray KurzweilInventor and futurist; has predicted AI passing the Turing test by 2029 and the Singularity by 2045 since 2005.
I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.
The Singularity Is Near (Viking, 2005) · Sep 22, 2005 · source
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
The Singularity, a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability driven by machine intelligence, will occur by 2045.
Confidence
medium (60%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2045
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2045 machine intelligence exceeds all human intelligence combined by Kurzweil's own measure and is broadly recognised as having transformed human capability. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Ray Kurzweil
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
OPEN
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
OPEN