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Dario Amodei
Dario AmodeiCEO and co-founder of Anthropic; author of "Machines of Loving Grace" on what powerful AI could do and when.
DUE

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

Council on Foreign Relations (reported by Business Insider) · Mar 10, 2025 · source · hindsight clip

Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).

Normalized claim
AI will be writing essentially all code within twelve months, by March 2026.
Confidence
medium (45%)
Deadline
Mar 10, 2026 · inferred
Resolution rule
Hit if by March 2026 credible industry-wide measures showed AI writing essentially all code. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
No crowd votes were recorded.

Voting closed at the deadline.

More from Dario Amodei

I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.

OPEN

If I look at coding, programming, which is one area where AI is making the most progress, what we are finding is we are not far from the world—I think we'll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

DUE