Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.
AI 2027, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
By the end of 2027 AI systems will eclipse all humans at all cognitive tasks.
Confidence
Hedged
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2027 major labs and academies broadly recognise AI systems as exceeding the best humans at essentially all cognitive tasks. Miss otherwise.
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Will it happen? Your call locks at the deadline and is scored when the verdict lands. No odds, no money — just your record.
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