Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.
AI 2027, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
By the end of 2027 AI systems will eclipse all humans at all cognitive tasks.
Confidence
low (20%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2027 major labs and academies broadly recognise AI systems as exceeding the best humans at essentially all cognitive tasks. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
Major algorithmic breakthroughs produce Agent-3, incorporating "neuralese recurrence" and improved reasoning. Agent-3 achieves "superhuman coder" capability.
OPEN
The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.
OPEN