RK
Ray KurzweilInventor and futurist; has predicted AI passing the Turing test by 2029 and the Singularity by 2045 since 2005.
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
Science Friday · Jun 14, 2024 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
By 2029 AI will reach AGI, able to do anything a human can do intellectually.
Confidence
high (75%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2029
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2029 major labs and academies broadly recognise an AI system as matching humans across cognitive tasks. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Ray Kurzweil
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
OPEN
I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.
OPEN