Sam AltmanCEO of OpenAI; writes dated essays on AGI, superintelligence and compute.
2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.
Sam Altman's blog, "The Gentle Singularity" · Jun 10, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
In 2027 robots will arrive that can do tasks in the real world.
Confidence
medium (50%)
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of 2027 general-purpose robots are sold or deployed commercially to perform varied physical tasks outside controlled demos, per the makers' disclosures. Miss otherwise.
Crowd vote
Vote to see the crowd.
Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Sam Altman
We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.
DUE
2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.
OPEN