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Leopold Aschenbrenner
@leopoldasch · X
Author of "Situational Awareness" (2024), which argues AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible; former OpenAI superalignment researcher.
No resolved calls yet. Hedges a lot.
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Sign in with X to claimOn the record since Jun 2024
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
20243 calls0 right · 0 wrong · 3 open—hit rate
2024
3 calls
0 right · 0 wrong · 3 open
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hit rate
We're on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028, requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state.OPEN · 55%
Jun 2024I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.OPEN · 55%
Jun 2024AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and "unhobbling" gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.OPEN · 60%
Jun 2024
Jun 2024I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.OPEN · 55%
Jun 2024AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and "unhobbling" gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.OPEN · 60%
Jun 2024