Nate SilverStatistician, founder of FiveThirtyEight and the Silver Bulletin, known for probabilistic election forecasts.
Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 United States presidential election.
Confidence
high (71%)
Deadline
Nov 8, 2016
Resolution rule
Hit if Clinton wins the Electoral College on 2016-11-08. Miss otherwise. Scored at the stated 71 percent.
Crowd vote
No crowd votes were recorded.
Voting closed at the deadline.