RK
Ray KurzweilInventor and futurist; has predicted AI passing the Turing test by 2029 and the Singularity by 2045 since 2005.
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
Science Friday · Jun 14, 2024 · source · archived snapshot
Normalized claim
A computer will pass the Turing test by the end of 2029.
Confidence
Sounded confident
Deadline
due Dec 31, 2029
Resolution rule
Hit if Long Bets #1 (Kurzweil vs Kapor) resolves in Kurzweil's favour: a computer passes the bet's Turing test protocol by end of 2029. Miss otherwise.
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More from Ray Kurzweil
In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.
OPEN
I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.
OPEN
Forecaster
RKRay Kurzweil
Inventor and futurist; has predicted AI passing the Turing test by 2029 and the Singularity by 2045 since 2005.
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