U
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo · X
Lead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
No resolved calls yet. Hedges a lot.
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Sign in with X to claimOn the record since Aug 2021
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
20252 calls0 right · 0 wrong · 2 open—hit rate
2025
2 calls
0 right · 0 wrong · 2 open
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hit rate
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.OPEN · 20%
Apr 2025Major algorithmic breakthroughs produce Agent-3, incorporating "neuralese recurrence" and improved reasoning. Agent-3 achieves "superhuman coder" capability.OPEN · 40%
Apr 2025
Apr 2025Major algorithmic breakthroughs produce Agent-3, incorporating "neuralese recurrence" and improved reasoning. Agent-3 achieves "superhuman coder" capability.OPEN · 40%
Apr 2025
20211 call0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open—hit rate
2021
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate