Daniel Kokotajlo
U

Daniel Kokotajlo

@DKokotajlo · X

Lead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.

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On the record since Aug 2021
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Hit rate
nothing resolved yet
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Last 10 calls
trend needs 15 resolved
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Brier score
0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
2025
2 calls
0 right · 0 wrong · 2 open
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hit rate
Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder.OPEN
Apr 2025Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.OPEN
Apr 2025
2021
1 call
0 right · 0 wrong · 1 open
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hit rate
The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.OPEN
Aug 2021

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