Standings

The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.

I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.

2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.

Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder.

Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.

It's going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade.

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and "unhobbling" gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.

I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.

Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.

2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.

If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.

I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.

I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance.

We're on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the International Space Station.

If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years time, we'll do well on every single one.

The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.

In 1999, I predicted by 2029, we'd reach the Turing test and also AGI, where basically a computer can do anything a human can do.

AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.

Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.

I think the shelf life of the current paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years.

We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think we feel confident in getting to 1 million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years. So by 2030, I feel confident in predicting 1 million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029.

Our Blackwell and Rubin AI factory platforms will be scaling into the $3 trillion to $4 trillion global AI factory build out through the end of the decade.

In the next five to ten years, I think.

I think maybe in the next 10, 15 years we can actually have a real crack at solving all disease.

I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It's possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now.

If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.

I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.