Daniel KokotajloLead author of the "AI 2027" scenario; former OpenAI governance researcher known for his 2021 "What 2026 looks like" forecast.
Major algorithmic breakthroughs produce Agent-3, incorporating "neuralese recurrence" and improved reasoning. Agent-3 achieves "superhuman coder" capability.
AI 2027, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
An AI system will reach 'superhuman coder' capability by March 2027.
Confidence
low (40%)
Deadline
due Mar 31, 2027
Resolution rule
Hit if by end of March 2027 an AI system does the job of the best human coder on AI-research tasks faster and cheaper, per the AI 2027 definition and frontier lab evidence. Miss otherwise. The scenario is a modal forecast, so scored at the authors' stated confidence.
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Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks.
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The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.
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