Bill GatesCo-founder of Microsoft and chair of the Gates Foundation; forecasts on technology and global health.
If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.
TED · Mar 18, 2015 · source · archived snapshot
Admitted by the site's editor alone — Seeded by the site owner at launch; single-operator admission (ADR-0012).
Normalized claim
A highly infectious virus, not a war, will be the next thing to kill more than 10 million people worldwide.
Confidence
medium (65%)
Deadline
due Mar 18, 2045 (inferred)
Resolution rule
Hit if, before any war does, a single infectious disease outbreak kills more than 10 million people by credible estimates (WHO excess-mortality counts). Editors may resolve early: COVID-19 excess deaths are estimated well above 10 million.
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Your call
Locked at the deadline. No odds, no money — just your record.